Exclusive: JPMorgan's Dimon Says a Recession Is Possible in 2026

Market Overview - The current market is characterized as a bull market with high asset prices and low credit spreads, supported by a stable consumer job market [1] - There are concerns regarding inflation not decreasing as expected, influenced by significant government spending which may be inflationary [2][4] Economic Outlook - There is a possibility of a recession occurring in 2026, although it is not a primary concern at the moment [3] - The US government shutdown is not seen as critical to market performance, with previous shutdowns having minimal economic impact [5][6] Inflation and Federal Reserve - The market is pricing in approximately 100 basis points of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve over the next year, but there are doubts about the accuracy of these forecasts [6][7] - If inflation rises unexpectedly, it may complicate the Fed's ability to implement the anticipated rate cuts [8]