PepsiCo Q3 Preview: Beverage Giant Needs To 'Deliver More Than Just A Decent Quarter'

Core Viewpoint - PepsiCo is set to release its third-quarter financial results, aiming to address concerns from analysts and an activist investor regarding stock performance and strategic changes [1][6]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts predict PepsiCo will report third-quarter revenue of $23.83 billion, an increase from $23.32 billion in the same quarter last year [1]. - Expected earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter is $2.26, down from $2.31 in the previous year [2]. Recent Performance - The company has surpassed revenue estimates for three consecutive quarters and has beaten overall estimates in seven of the last ten quarters [2]. - PepsiCo stock has underperformed compared to Coca-Cola year-to-date, necessitating a strong quarterly performance to regain investor confidence [3][4]. Market Pressures - Analysts highlight several pressures on PepsiCo, including criticism of processed foods, margin pressures, and weaker innovation compared to competitors [4]. - The stock has shown flat performance over the last three years, indicating a need for improved investor sentiment [4]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Bank of America Securities maintains a Neutral rating with a $150 price target, viewing PepsiCo as a defensive investment [5]. - Other analysts have adjusted their price targets downward, with JPMorgan lowering from $157 to $151 and Barclays from $144 to $140 [7]. Activist Investor Influence - Elliott Investment Management has acquired a $4 billion stake in PepsiCo and is advocating for strategic changes, including potential divestitures and cost reductions [6][7]. Market Share and Competition - PepsiCo is currently losing market share in the U.S. soda sector, ranking fourth behind Coca-Cola, Dr Pepper, and Sprite [8]. - The company has entered a distribution agreement with Celsius Holdings to enhance its presence in the non-carbonated soda market [8]. International Performance - CEO Ramon Laguarta noted strong international growth, with International Beverages up 3% year-over-year and EMEA sales up 8% year-over-year [9]. - Continued focus on international expansion and improving North American performance is a priority for the company [9]. Guidance and Stock Performance - Following second-quarter results, PepsiCo raised its full-year EPS guidance, and analysts will be monitoring for potential further increases [10]. - As of the latest trading, Pepsi stock is down 1% to $139.32, with an 8.4% decline year-to-date, trailing Coca-Cola's 7% return [10].