Americold Has Become Sufficiently Cheap, Maybe Worth Limping Into An Investment

Core Insights - Americold's stock price has decreased by 65% over the last five years, which is atypical for a stable and necessary business like cold storage [1][7] - The significant price drop is attributed to market misinterpretation of cyclical trends, leading to overvaluation during peak inventory periods and subsequent undervaluation as earnings decline [2][6][10] Company Analysis - Americold is a global leader in cold storage, and despite the stock price decline, long-term business trends remain positive with analyst estimates indicating a rebound in earnings by 2027 [7][10] - The company was overvalued five years ago, and the current low stock price reflects a market correction following an oversupply situation that was not sustainable [8][12] - The market's tendency to extrapolate current trends has led to Americold trading at low multiples, despite the cyclical nature of its business [10][33] Financial Performance - The company has faced challenges with earnings guidance, cutting forecasts for revenue growth and same-store revenue [17][18] - Service revenue remains strong, indicating continued customer demand, while storage revenue has declined due to lower inventory levels [21][19] - Current margins are stable, but higher electricity costs have impacted profitability; however, cost-cutting measures have helped maintain margins [25][22] Valuation Metrics - Americold's stock is currently trading at 55% of its net asset value and at a forward consensus AFFO multiple of 9.5X, which is lower than industry peers [26][27][32] - Adjusted AFFO shows a true earnings figure of approximately $0.87 per share, leading to a 14.6X multiple on true AFFO, which is still cheaper than most competitors [31][33] - Analysts suggest that the stock is undervalued at 14.5X trough AFFO, with potential for recovery as fundamentals improve [33][34]