Sugar Prices Knocked Lower by Projections for a Global Sugar Surplus

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined after reaching a 1.75-month high, influenced by projections of a global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season [1][2] - Brazil's sugar production has increased, contributing to bearish market sentiment [4][6] - India's favorable monsoon conditions are expected to boost sugar production, further pressuring prices [5][6] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.35 (-2.08%), and December London ICE white sugar 5 is down -9.40 (-2.02%) [1] - NY sugar initially climbed to a 1.75-month high due to lower sugar content in Brazil's sugarcane [2] - Last month, NY sugar hit a 4.25-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global supplies [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by +15.7% y/y to 3.622 million tons in the first half of September [4] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increased to 53.49% from 47.74% year-on-year [4] - Cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through mid-September fell -0.1% y/y to 30.388 million tons [4] Group 3: India's Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by +19% y/y to 34.9 million tons due to larger planted cane acreage [6] - This follows a significant decline of -17.5% y/y in 2024/25, resulting in a 5-year low of 26.2 million tons [6] - The cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon season [5]