关于降息前景，美联储内部分歧正在加剧

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a divided outlook among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with a majority expecting at least two more cuts this year, while some anticipate only one cut or no cuts at all through 2025 [1][5][10] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 25 basis points during the September meeting, marking the first cut of the year, with a voting outcome of 11 to 1 [3][5] - More than half of the 19 officials at the meeting expect at least two more rate cuts this year, suggesting potential cuts in October and December [5][6] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming October meeting is estimated at 94.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 5.9% [6] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - Officials expressed concerns about the rising risks in the U.S. labor market, fearing that prolonged high rates could lead to unnecessary weakness in employment, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like housing [8][9] - There is a significant worry about persistent inflation, which has remained above the Fed's target for four consecutive years, with officials cautioning that businesses and consumers may adapt to higher price growth [9][10] - The balance between promoting employment and controlling inflation is emphasized as crucial in future policy decisions [9][10] Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Data Limitations - The minutes reflect substantial internal disagreements among Fed officials regarding the necessity and timing of further rate cuts, highlighting the challenges faced by Chairman Powell in achieving consensus [5][10] - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed decisions in the upcoming meetings [10]