中经评论：从“电气化率超欧美”看战略先机

Core Insights - China's electrification rate is projected to reach approximately 28.8% in 2024, surpassing major developed economies in Europe and the US, with an expected increase to around 35% by 2030, exceeding the OECD average by 8 to 10 percentage points [1][2][4] Group 1: Economic Development - A high electrification rate serves as a "booster" for high-quality economic development, as electricity has the highest economic efficiency compared to coal and oil, allowing for greater economic output from the same energy input [2] - The strong stability of China's power grid and high electrification rate are key supports for emerging industries such as electric vehicles, data centers, artificial intelligence, and high-end precision manufacturing [2] Group 2: Energy Security - High electrification rates act as a "ballast" for energy security, addressing the risks associated with China's resource endowment of "rich coal, scarce gas, and lack of oil" by combining electrification with renewable energy [2] - The installed capacity of renewable energy in China has increased significantly, from 530 million kilowatts to approximately 1.7 billion kilowatts during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with renewable energy generation accounting for about 60% of total generation [2] Group 3: Green Transition - Electrification is a primary method for achieving low-carbon energy consumption, with initiatives to replace fossil fuel vehicles and coal-fired boilers with electric alternatives, contributing to reduced pollutant and carbon emissions [3] - The leading electrification rate enhances China's international competitiveness, particularly in areas such as ultra-high voltage transmission, smart grids, and electric vehicle charging standards [3] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite achievements, challenges remain, particularly the need for cleaner electricity sources, as coal power still constitutes a significant portion of electricity supply [4] - The focus for future development will shift from "how much electricity" to "what kind of electricity" and "how to use electricity," indicating a higher-level competition involving technology, policy, and business models [4]