Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly ahead of the National Day holiday, with expectations for continued volatility post-holiday due to supply constraints and macroeconomic factors [1][2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tight, primarily due to disruptions at major mines like Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has declared force majeure, exacerbating supply issues [1][3][4]. - In September, the average price of 1 copper in China was 80,775 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.11% increase from August and a 7.99% year-on-year rise [2]. - The production of refined copper in China is expected to decline further due to ongoing maintenance at smelters and tight supply of anode plates [4]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The Shanghai copper futures market saw a significant increase, with the main contract reaching a high of 83,820 yuan/ton, marking a 3.4% rise since September 25 [2][4]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price also hit a 16-month high, reaching $10,800/ton, with a cumulative increase of over 3% during the National Day holiday [2][3]. Investment Implications - Companies with their own mining resources and strong cost control are expected to benefit the most from rising copper prices, while those reliant on purchased raw materials may face margin pressures [7][9]. - The financial attributes of copper are becoming more pronounced, with increased speculative buying following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, reminiscent of inflationary periods in the 1970s [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to exhibit a strong oscillating pattern in the fourth quarter, with the main contract expected to trade between 79,000 and 85,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are likely to support copper demand, particularly in sectors like electric grids and new energy vehicles [9][10].
供应紧张价格大涨，节后铜价又将如何演绎？
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-09 00:14