黄金攻破4000美元之际：全球央行正迅速撤离美债？

Core Insights - The recent decline in U.S. Treasury holdings by foreign central banks, managed by the New York Fed, has reached its lowest level in over a decade, coinciding with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce, raising concerns about the attractiveness of U.S. sovereign debt and dollar assets to foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Holdings - The value of U.S. Treasuries held by the New York Fed for foreign central banks has dropped to $2.78 trillion, the lowest since August 2012, with a reduction of $130 billion in just two months [2]. - The decline in custodial holdings may signal a potential decrease in demand for U.S. Treasuries and dollar reserves, which could be reflected in future TIC and Cofer reports [2][3]. Group 2: Recent Data Trends - The latest TIC data indicates that foreign central banks net purchased $17.1 billion in U.S. Treasuries in July, bringing the total net purchases for the first seven months of the year to $38 billion, approximately $4 billion higher than the same period in 2024 [2]. - The IMF's Cofer report shows that foreign central banks were net buyers of dollar reserves in the second quarter, with estimated purchases of dollar-denominated securities nearing $50 billion [2]. Group 3: Market Implications - The rapid decline in custodial holdings during a period of significant dollar weakness raises alarms, as such declines typically occur when the dollar is strong, prompting central banks to sell Treasuries for cash [3]. - The peak custodial holdings of $2.95 trillion occurred in March-April 2023, suggesting a cooling interest from foreign central banks in U.S. Treasuries since then [3].