美政府停摆，避险需求提升，金价强势突破4000美元

Core Viewpoint - During the National Day holiday, gold prices surged due to multiple factors including the U.S. government shutdown, disappointing non-farm payroll data, and escalating trade policies, with both spot and futures gold prices reaching a historic high of $4,000 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown delayed the highly anticipated non-farm payroll data release, leading to a decrease in September ADP employment numbers by 32,000, contrary to the expected increase of 51,000 [1] - Following the release of the ADP employment data, traders increased their bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [1] - The probability of cumulative rate cuts by December shows a 9.8% chance for 25 basis points, 89.3% for 50 basis points, and 0.9% for 75 basis points [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Investors are flocking to the gold market seeking refuge amid heightened global economic and geopolitical risks, as noted by Huishang Futures [1] - Concerns have arisen regarding whether the AI-driven market surge has reached an "overly prosperous" level, particularly following Oracle's cloud business profit margin report [1] - The political crisis in France and leadership changes in Japan have intensified risk aversion globally, reinforcing gold's status as a safe haven [1]