美国联邦政府7年来首次“停摆” 负面影响凸现

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown for the first time in seven years due to the failure of a temporary funding bill to pass in the Senate, with significant economic and political implications expected [1][2] - The likelihood of the shutdown lasting more than 10 days is estimated at 69%, which could negatively impact both the U.S. economy and global markets [1][8] Government Operations and Employment - Over 750,000 federal employees have been placed on unpaid leave, with only essential services continuing to operate, leading to significant disruptions in various departments [3][5] - The shutdown could lead to long-term damage to the labor market, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on government funding such as research, education, and infrastructure [6][7] Economic Impact - Historical data suggests that a shutdown lasting a week could reduce U.S. GDP by 0.1% to 0.2%, with potential losses escalating with the duration of the shutdown [8][9] - The previous shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019 resulted in an estimated GDP loss of approximately $3 billion [6] Global Market Reactions - The shutdown is expected to create negative ripple effects in global markets, with potential losses for the EU GDP estimated at €4 billion for a two-week shutdown and €16 billion for an eight-week shutdown [8] - Increased volatility in financial markets is anticipated, with a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets like gold [8][9] Data Reporting Delays - The shutdown has caused delays in the release of key economic data, including employment statistics and inflation reports, which could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to assess economic conditions [7][8]