黄金牛市：长期逻辑、短期触发与未来展望

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced a significant upward trend since 2025, with gold prices approaching $4000 per ounce, driven by long-term structural changes in the global monetary credit system [1][3]. Group 1: Recent Price Movements - Since September, gold prices have surged, reaching nearly $4000 per ounce by October 7, 2023 [2]. - The month of September saw a notable increase in gold prices, with an 11.6% rise in USD terms [3]. Group 2: Long-term Logic Behind Gold's Rise - The long-term support for gold's price increase is primarily linked to the restructuring of the global monetary credit system [4]. - Gold's unique attributes as both a commodity and a financial asset tie its price movements closely to macroeconomic conditions, monetary system evolution, and supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 3: Factors Supporting Gold Demand - The acceleration of de-dollarization is undermining the credibility of the US dollar, prompting countries to diversify their reserve assets, with gold emerging as a key alternative [4]. - Central banks globally are increasingly purchasing gold as a strategic measure, viewing it as a means of value storage and a core resource for stabilizing economies during global turmoil [4]. - The ongoing adjustments in reserve structures are seen as a long-term trend within the broader context of monetary system restructuring, providing stable underlying support for gold demand [4]. Group 4: Risks to Monetary Credit - The accumulation of debt risks in the US is raising concerns about monetary credit, with the heavy interest burden on federal debt posing sustainability challenges [5]. - The rising risk of a debt crisis is eroding confidence in dollar-denominated assets, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Historical patterns indicate that when sovereign debt risks escalate and monetary credit is compromised, gold's long-term upward trend tends to strengthen [5].