政府关门、非农报告缺席 长假期间美债市场激荡

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years due to the Senate's failure to pass a temporary funding bill, leading to significant market volatility, particularly in the U.S. Treasury bond market [1][3]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown has resulted in a halt to various public services and the suspension of economic data releases, including the monthly employment report [3]. - The shutdown has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold and U.S. Treasury prices rising on the first day of the shutdown [3]. - The 10-year Treasury yield fell over 5 basis points on the first day of the shutdown, while the 2-year yield dropped more than 7 basis points [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the initial drop, the 10-year Treasury yield rebounded significantly, with a maximum increase of over 9 basis points by October 7, as investors assessed the potential economic impact of the shutdown [3]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October have risen above 90%, with the possibility of two additional cuts before December [4]. - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated broad support among committee members for a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting concerns over economic uncertainty and labor market risks [4]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - There are differing views within the FOMC regarding the path of interest rate cuts, with some members advocating for aggressive cuts while others, including Fed Chair Powell, express caution [5]. - The shutdown has complicated the Fed's decision-making process by disrupting the release of key economic data, such as the September employment report [5].