美国政府停摆进入第二周 经济与民生双重承压

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government has entered a "shutdown" state, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees and causing significant disruptions to public services and the macro economy [1][2]. Economic Impact - The government shutdown is expected to suppress GDP growth, with economists warning that it could reverse the strong growth momentum seen in the second quarter, where GDP annualized growth was 3.8% [2]. - If the shutdown continues until October 15, it may lead to significant political and social pressure, potentially prompting bipartisan negotiations [2]. Data Availability - The shutdown has resulted in the suspension of key economic data releases, including non-farm payroll reports, creating an "information vacuum" for traders [3]. - This lack of data is forcing market participants to adjust their investment strategies amid heightened uncertainty [3]. Political Stalemate - The root cause of the shutdown lies in the intense political battle between Democrats and Republicans over the continuation of subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) [3][4]. - Both parties have failed to pass temporary funding proposals, with the Senate rejecting both sides' plans, indicating a need for bipartisan support to move forward [4]. Market Resilience - Despite the short-term impacts of the shutdown, the U.S. capital markets have shown resilience, with the S&P 500 index up 14% year-to-date and reaching a historical high [5]. - Analysts predict a 8.8% year-over-year increase in third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies, indicating underlying market strength [5]. Consumer Confidence - The negative effects of the shutdown are beginning to impact consumer confidence, with warnings that restarting the government may be more challenging than initiating the shutdown [6]. - Delays in airport security due to staffing shortages and potential interruptions to nutrition assistance programs are contributing to a decline in consumer sentiment [6][7]. - There is a 71% probability that the government shutdown will extend beyond October 14, which could further affect the economy and market sentiment in the fourth quarter [7].