美联储会议纪要披露：货币政策转向风险平衡 劳动力市场降温成降息主因

Core Points - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes indicate a majority support for a 25 basis point rate cut, with one dissenting vote advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points due to a softening labor market and core inflation nearing the 2% target [1][4] Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is showing a complex picture, with a noticeable slowdown in real GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Although the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3% as of August, job growth has been weak, with non-farm payroll additions significantly below expectations in July and August [2][3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a downward revision of over 900,000 jobs in the total employment figure for the 12 months ending March 2025 [2] Inflation and Market Expectations - As of August, the overall PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while core PCE increased by 2.9%, both at high levels for the year. Most participants believe that tariff increases are contributing to inflationary pressures, although some noted that the impact has weakened compared to earlier expectations [2][3] - Financial market expectations for policy direction have shifted significantly, with nearly all surveyed anticipating a 25 basis point cut at the meeting, and almost half expecting another cut in October [2] Monetary Market Conditions - There are signs of short-term tension in the money market, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) briefly rising above the minimum bid rate for the standing repo facility (SRF) due to a significant increase in the Treasury General Account balance [3] - The effective federal funds rate remains stable, but the minutes suggest that future money market rates may gradually exceed the management rate level [3] Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows a narrow range in the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals at 1.0, with wage growth slowing. Recent data indicates that job growth is concentrated in a few sectors, and the unemployment rate among sensitive groups, such as young Black individuals, is rising [3][4] Policy Outlook - The committee emphasizes that the current economic outlook is highly uncertain, with the risks to employment outweighing inflationary pressures. A modest rate cut is aimed at supporting the full employment goal while reflecting subtle changes in risk balance [4] - The committee unanimously agrees to continue the balance sheet reduction process, with expectations that the System Open Market Account (SOMA) will be slightly above $6 trillion by the end of March 2026 [5]