苯酚产业何以解“内忧”

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has decided to continue imposing anti-dumping duties on imported phenol from the US, EU, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand for an additional five years, providing a policy protection window for China's phenol industry while highlighting the increasing structural contradictions and competitive pressures in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Industry Capacity and Competition - The phenol industry in China is experiencing integrated, scaled, and diversified development, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.65% in phenol capacity over the past decade and a 16.01% growth rate over the last five years [1] - By the end of 2024, China's phenol capacity is expected to exceed 7.35 million tons, driven by the commissioning of seven new facilities and one expansion in 2023, resulting in an annual capacity growth rate of 51% [1] - Despite the growth in phenol demand, the supply increase is significantly outpacing demand, leading to a market shift towards oversupply and intensifying internal competition [1] Group 2: Market Pricing and Profitability - The oversupply situation has weakened the price structure of phenol, with prices closely linked to the raw material benzene, which has seen significant declines [2] - Phenol prices fell below 6,500 yuan/ton, reaching a two-year low, and despite a slight increase during the traditional consumption peak in September, prices remain nearly 2,000 yuan/ton lower year-on-year [2] - The average operating rate for phenol in the first half of the year was only 72%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year, with many producers facing continuous losses [2] Group 3: Long-term Structural Changes - Since the implementation of anti-dumping measures in 2019, the import dependency of phenol has decreased from 28.5% to an expected 16.8% in 2024, allowing domestic companies more time to adjust [3] - However, policy protection alone cannot fundamentally resolve structural issues within the industry, which is expected to undergo significant supply-side structural reforms in the medium to long term [3] - This transformation may involve the exit of some small capacities, industry consolidation, and a shift towards high-value-added, differentiated, and refined products, necessitating continuous capacity optimization and technological upgrades [3]