黄金比特币创新高！美政府停摆与日本新首相推升全球“双宽”预期

Core Viewpoint - The global political rightward shift, along with trends of expansive fiscal and monetary policies, indicates increased uncertainty from geopolitical friction and greater unsustainability of global government debt, raising the probability of the economy moving from a soft landing to moderate overheating [1] Market Strategy - Short-term risk appetite for US stocks is expected to weaken due to the ongoing government shutdown, while in the medium term, the combination of right-wing policies and dual expansionary fiscal and monetary measures is likely to lead to geopolitical risks, economic overheating, and weakened fiat currency credit, with expected asset performance ranking as gold > copper > stocks [1] Major Events Impacting Markets - The US government shutdown and the election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan are the two main events driving market sentiment [2] - The US government shutdown, which began on October 1, is expected to last longer than market expectations, leading to increased risk aversion and a rise in gold and Bitcoin prices, with both assets reaching historical highs [2][3] Economic Data - The US ADP employment data showed a negative growth of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000, indicating weakness in the labor market [5] - The ISM manufacturing PMI improved to 49.1, while the services PMI fell to 50, reflecting mixed signals in the US economy [5] Political Developments in the US - The US federal government entered a shutdown due to a failure to pass a temporary spending bill, primarily over disagreements on healthcare spending, with potential economic impacts being limited based on historical precedents [6][7] - The shutdown is expected to delay the release of key economic data, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are crucial for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [7] Political Developments in Japan - Kishi Nobuo's election as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lead to a continuation of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike process [8][9] - Kishi's economic policies are characterized by a commitment to "more responsible" fiscal expansion, with a focus on coordinating closely with the Bank of Japan [9]