苯酚产业何以解“内忧”

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has decided to continue imposing anti-dumping duties on imported phenol from the US, EU, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand for another five years, providing a policy protection window for China's phenol industry, while domestic structural contradictions and competitive pressures are becoming increasingly prominent [1] Group 1: Industry Capacity and Competition - The phenol and ketone industry in China is experiencing integrated, large-scale, and diversified development, with continuous capacity expansion. The compound annual growth rate of phenol capacity over the past ten years has reached 13.65%, with a five-year growth rate of 16.01%. In 2023, the annual capacity growth rate surged to 51% due to the commissioning of seven new and one expanded production facilities [1][2] - By 2025, the total phenol capacity is expected to exceed 7.35 million tons. Although the overall demand for phenol is also increasing, the supply growth rate significantly outpaces demand, leading to a gradual shift towards an oversupply situation and intensifying internal competition within the industry [1] Group 2: Market Pricing and Profitability - The oversupply situation has led to increased vulnerability in the phenol price system, with prices closely linked to the raw material pure benzene. This year, phenol prices have fluctuated alongside pure benzene prices, dropping to below 6,500 yuan/ton, a two-year low. Even during the traditional peak consumption season, prices only increased by 217 yuan/ton compared to August, with a year-on-year decline of nearly 2,000 yuan/ton [2] - The average operating rate for phenol in the first half of the year was only 72%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year, with many production enterprises facing continuous losses since the second quarter. Despite attempts by some factories to stabilize prices, the lack of demand-supply balance limits price recovery potential [2] Group 3: Long-term Structural Changes - Since the implementation of anti-dumping measures in 2019, the import dependency of phenol has decreased from 28.5% to 16.8% in 2024. The continuation of anti-dumping duties for five years will provide domestic enterprises with more time to adjust. However, it is essential for the industry to recognize that policy protection cannot fundamentally resolve structural issues [3] - In the medium to long term, the phenol and ketone industry will undergo profound supply-side structural reforms, which may involve the exit of some small and medium-sized capacities, industry mergers and acquisitions, and a shift towards high value-added, differentiated, and refined products. Continuous capacity optimization, technological upgrades, and market clearing are necessary for the phenol industry to compete with international manufacturers after the anti-dumping protection period ends [3]