智通财经网·2025-10-09 03:27Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the average daily trading volume forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) for 2025 to 2027, while adjusting net investment income predictions downward due to a low interest rate environment, maintaining a target price of HKD 520 and reiterating a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Trading Volume and Earnings Forecast - The average daily trading volume forecast for HKEX has been increased from HKD 2,400 billion, 2,600 billion, and 2,600 billion to HKD 2,600 billion, 2,700 billion, and 2,700 billion for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The expected profit for HKEX in the first three quarters of this year is projected to reach HKD 12.9 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 39% [1] - The average daily trading amount for the third quarter is reported to be HKD 28.6 billion, marking a historical high [1] Group 2: Net Investment Income and Interest Rate Impact - Net investment income forecasts have been lowered by 5% to 7% due to fluctuations in Hong Kong dollar interbank offered rates (HIBOR) [1] - Although HIBOR has decreased in the second quarter, its lagging impact on net investment income may only become apparent in the third quarter, with expected recovery in the fourth quarter as HIBOR rebounds in August and September [1] Group 3: Future Growth and Competitive Landscape - Profit growth for HKEX is expected to slow from 24% in 2025 to 8% in 2026 and 2027, unless there is a significant increase in total market capitalization [1] - Reliance solely on trading volume growth may not be sufficient to drive revenue, with derivatives anticipated to be a key growth engine [1] - Competition for IPOs between Hong Kong and mainland exchanges is expected to intensify, as the mainland places greater emphasis on new technology sectors and may implement incentive policies to retain key enterprises for domestic listings [1]