日本央行加息前景仍不确定

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under pressure due to expectations of continued monetary easing by the new government and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy direction, particularly regarding interest rate hikes [1][2] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading around 152.50, with a weekly increase exceeding 3%, marking the largest rise since September 2024 [1] - Market participants are questioning the likelihood of the BOJ raising interest rates in October or December, given the ongoing weakness in Japan's economy [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicate a cautious approach towards potential rate cuts, with inflation risks still a concern [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Expectations - The probability of a BOJ rate hike in late October has dropped to 27%, while December's likelihood stands at 44%, subject to changes with the new government [2] - BOJ officials express a mix of optimism and caution regarding the economic outlook, particularly concerning wage-related uncertainties [2] - Former BOJ officials suggest that the rationale for a rate hike this year is weak, advocating for a careful approach to policy normalization [2] Group 3: Potential Risks and Interventions - If the BOJ does not raise rates in October, the risk of foreign exchange intervention may increase, although decisive action is unlikely from the current government [2]