Sugar Prices Fall Back as Covrig Forecasts a Global Sugar Glut

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently declined after reaching a 1.75-month high, influenced by projections of a global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season [1][2] Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.18 (-1.07%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -6.40 (-1.38%) [1] - NY sugar initially climbed to a 1.75-month high due to lower sugar content from Brazil's sugarcane crush [2] - Last month, NY sugar hit a 4.25-year low, and London sugar reached a 4-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global sugar supplies [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons [4] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills increased to 53.49% in the second half of August from 47.74% the previous year [4] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-September fell -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [4] Group 3: India's Sugar Production Outlook - The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, with monsoon rains reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years [5] - India's sugar production is projected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a -17.5% decline in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 million tons [6]