报告：芯片出口拉动，东盟+中日韩今年经济增幅上调至4.1%

Core Insights - The ASEAN+3 region demonstrates economic resilience amid global uncertainties, driven by robust internal demand and regional trade [1][3] - AMRO forecasts economic growth for ASEAN+3 to reach 4.1% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, reflecting upward revisions from previous predictions [1][3] - The region's strong economic performance in the first half of 2025, particularly in exports, has created favorable conditions for recovery [1][3] Economic Growth - ASEAN+3 economies achieved approximately 4.3% growth in the first half of 2025, supported by both domestic demand and exports [3] - The region's export growth was approximately 7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by demand for electronic products [3] - The growth forecast for ASEAN is expected to slow from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026 [3] Export Performance - The semiconductor sector has shown significant growth, with ASEAN+3 semiconductor exports increasing by 10.9% in the first half of 2025, driven by a 19.2% year-on-year growth in the global chip market [3][4] - Despite overall export growth slowing, strong demand for AI-related chips continues to offset weaknesses in other sectors [3][4] Service Trade and Tourism - The tourism sector has rebounded, with visitor numbers surpassing pre-pandemic levels, providing strong support for domestic demand and employment [4] - Recent data indicates a stabilization in tourism, despite short-term disruptions from natural disasters and security incidents [4] Risks and Challenges - AMRO warns of four major downside risks that could significantly impact the baseline forecasts for 2025 and 2026, including potential escalation of protectionist policies [5][6] - The risk of a slowdown in major economies, particularly the U.S., could weaken consumer and investor confidence, affecting regional economic activity [5][6] - Global financial market volatility and potential spikes in commodity prices due to geopolitical tensions pose additional risks to the region's economic stability [6] Policy and Stability - AMRO emphasizes that ASEAN+3 economies are relatively well-positioned to navigate global headwinds, supported by a robust banking system and adequate foreign exchange reserves [6] - The combination of well-designed policy measures and strong fundamentals provides a critical buffer against external shocks [6]