跌穿年线的银行板块，四季度会不会深蹲起跳？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the banking sector has experienced a significant decline, with the China Securities Banking Index dropping by 12.85% from July 10 to September 19, primarily due to increased market risk appetite and profit-taking after strong performance in the first half of the year [1][2] - The decline in the banking sector is characterized by a differentiation among various types of banks, with shareholding banks experiencing the largest average drop of 15.68%, while state-owned banks had a relatively smaller decline of 4.25% due to their strong reserve positions [1] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the banking sector may benefit from potential shifts in risk appetite, particularly if trade negotiations progress positively, which could favor defensive dividend stocks like banks [1] Group 2 - The fundamental outlook for the banking sector remains stable, with expectations for slight profit growth driven by improved interest margins and increased contributions from impairment [2] - In the fourth quarter, factors such as a moderate increase in stock indices, declining funding costs in the bond market, and the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut could create a favorable environment for bank stocks, enhancing their dividend yield attractiveness [2] - The H-shares of banks are viewed as more favorable compared to A-shares due to high AH premium rates and the global trend towards rate cuts, making H-share dividend yields more appealing [2]