鲍威尔讲话成焦点 警惕美元技术性反弹

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index (DXY) has halted a three-day rally, currently trading around 98.70, primarily due to short-term downward pressure from the government shutdown and market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Economic Context - The US government shutdown has entered its ninth day with no signs of resolution, as the Senate has rejected proposals to end the impasse for the sixth time [1] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicate that a majority of policymakers support a rate cut in September and suggest further easing of policies this year, although some members express caution due to inflation concerns [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan presents a unique view that inflation is fundamentally driven by "population growth," emphasizing the need for monetary policy adjustments ahead of the downward trend in neutral interest rates [1] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari adopts a more reserved stance, warning that it is too early to determine whether tariff-induced inflation is "sticky," but remains optimistic about the labor market's performance [1] - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid emphasizes the need for the Fed to maintain its anti-inflation credibility, noting that current inflation levels are too high and suggesting that monetary policy adjustments are appropriately timed [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently prices in a 92.5% probability of a rate cut in October and a 78% probability of another cut in December [2] - The DXY has retreated below the 99 mark from last month's high, with short-term moving averages trending downward, indicating a bearish momentum [2] - If the DXY breaks below the 98.50 support level, it may extend its decline to 98.20, while resistance is seen in the 99.20 to 99.50 range, suggesting an overall downward consolidation pattern [2]