中指研究院：预计“银十”新房市场将延续分化态势 二手房交易活跃度将继续温和回升

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the real estate market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays was relatively flat, but high-quality projects in core cities maintained strong interest, with new home signing areas in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year growth [1] Market Performance Summary - Beijing: New home transactions in September reached 460,000 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 21% and a year-on-year increase of 22%. During the holiday period, daily new home transactions averaged 6,100 square meters, up 52% from last year [4] - Shanghai: New home sales in September were 970,000 square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 23% and a year-on-year increase of 16%. Daily new home transactions during the holiday averaged 6,200 square meters, a slight increase of 3% from last year [5] - Shenzhen: New home sales in September averaged 6,000 square meters daily, a 44% increase from August, but only a 1% year-on-year increase. During the holiday, daily new home transactions averaged 2,300 square meters, up 22% from last year [5] - Guangzhou: New home transactions in September were 5,258 units, with a month-on-month increase of 18% and a year-on-year increase of 10%. Daily new home transactions during the holiday averaged 8,100 square meters, a slight decrease of 4% from last year [5] - Hangzhou: In September, 49 projects were launched, leading to a 40% increase in transactions. Daily new home transactions during the holiday averaged 1,800 square meters, showing a significant year-on-year decline [5] - Chengdu: The market showed steady recovery with new home transactions averaging 2,900 square meters daily during the holiday, a slight decrease of 5% from last year [6] Policy and Market Dynamics - The State Council emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, which led to policy optimizations in core cities, contributing to a slight market recovery in September [1] - Developers in major cities have been actively promoting sales through various marketing strategies, including discounts and special offers, to stimulate demand [2][3] Land Market Trends - The transaction volume of residential land in 300 cities continued to decline, with a 3.3% year-on-year decrease in September. The total land transfer revenue also fell by 8.8% year-on-year [8] - In October, major cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou have significant land parcels available for auction, indicating ongoing interest in core land despite recent market cooling [9]