美债减持潮对美元构成利空

Core Insights - The dollar has not continued its upward trend from the previous three trading days, showing a slight decline, with the latest dollar index at 98.90, up 0.05% [1] - The New York Fed's custody holdings of U.S. Treasury securities for foreign central banks have dropped to the lowest level in over a decade, raising concerns about foreign investors' interest in U.S. Treasuries and other dollar assets [1][2] - Despite the decline in custody holdings, recent reports from the U.S. Treasury and IMF indicate that overseas demand for Treasuries and dollar assets remains relatively robust, although these reports have a significant lag in data release [1] Group 1 - The latest data shows that the New York Fed's custody holdings of U.S. Treasuries for foreign central banks stand at $2.78 trillion, the lowest since August 2012, having decreased by $130 billion in just two months [2] - The peak holding of $2.95 trillion occurred in March-April 2023, coinciding with significant market volatility due to U.S. tariff policies, suggesting a cooling interest from foreign central banks in U.S. Treasuries since then [2] Group 2 - The dollar index experienced fluctuations, reaching a nine-week high and trading around 98.90, with key resistance levels at 99.30 and support at 98.30 [2] - Technical indicators show a bearish short-term momentum for the dollar index, with potential downward movement if it breaks below the 98.50 support level, possibly extending to 98.20 [2]