产地或提前进入减产周期 10月棕榈油存走强预期

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil spot prices experienced a rebound in July and August, but saw a correction in September as market bullish factors were exhausted. However, tight fundamentals in Malaysia are expected to limit the price decline [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - In September, the CFR price for 24-degree palm oil in China was reported at $1,106 per ton, with an average import cost of approximately 9,438 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.24% [1]. - The domestic average price for 24-degree palm oil was 9,378 yuan per ton in September, down 0.17% from August. Despite this, high import costs are expected to suppress further declines in spot prices [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - India's palm oil imports peaked in August but are expected to decline to around 830,000 tons in September, indicating weakening demand support for palm oil prices [3]. - Seasonal patterns suggest that palm oil production typically peaks in October, but adverse weather in Malaysia has led to an unexpected decline in production, with September output estimated at 1.76 million tons. This tightening supply may bolster palm oil prices [3]. - The seasonal index indicates a high probability of palm oil price increases in October, supported by a "weak supply, strong demand" scenario in Malaysia. However, domestic demand may not improve significantly, potentially limiting price increases [3].