瑞士央行负利率谨慎态度 瑞郎升值空间有限

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing limited appreciation potential in the short term due to the Swiss National Bank's cautious stance on negative interest rates, which could adversely affect pensioners and financial institutions [1][2] Group 1: Currency Movements - The USD/CHF exchange rate has retreated from its monthly high to around 0.8000, with a recent rebound to 0.8017, reflecting a 0.03% increase [1] - The USD/CHF is currently supported at the 0.8000 level, with potential short-term adjustments limited if this level holds [2] - Resistance levels for USD/CHF are identified at 0.8030 (monthly high) and the 0.8050–0.8060 range, with a breakthrough potentially resuming the upward trend [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicate a likelihood of easing monetary policy in 2025, with a potential reduction of the federal funds rate to 3.6% by year-end, suggesting two more rate cuts this year [1] - Market expectations for rate cuts in October and December remain strong, with nearly certain probabilities for the upcoming meeting and a 78.6% chance for December [1] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained its policy rate at 0% as of September 25, marking its first pause in the rate-cutting cycle initiated in March 2024 [1]