法拍房正成为楼市止跌回稳的“绊脚石”—— 从国际经验看我国房地产风险化解路径

Group 1: Current Situation and Risks of Foreclosure Properties - The number of foreclosure properties in China reached 576,600 in the first half of 2025, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year, with a transaction volume of 83,600 and a low transaction rate of 14.5% [2] - The average discount rate for foreclosure properties has dropped to 77.29%, the lowest in recent years, indicating significant financial distress among households facing foreclosure [2] - The phenomenon of "price assassins" is distorting the real estate market, leading to a decline in second-hand and new housing prices, which poses a major obstacle to stabilizing the real estate market [2][3] Group 2: Structural Changes in the Foreclosure Market - The transaction rate for first-time foreclosure listings is only 11.61%, while the combined transaction rate for second and subsequent auctions is 67.05%, indicating a growing disconnect between buyer expectations and initial pricing [3] - The increasing prevalence of foreclosure properties is affecting overall market price expectations, further suppressing real estate prices [3] Group 3: Policy Comparisons and Lessons from the U.S. and Japan - Japan's mishandling of the foreclosure market during its real estate crisis led to a prolonged economic downturn, while the U.S. implemented effective policies that stabilized its housing market within four years [4][5] - The U.S. government provided substantial financial support to homeowners, which helped prevent a surge in foreclosures and facilitated a recovery in housing prices [5] Group 4: Challenges and the Spiral of Declining Housing Prices in China - The current real estate market in China exhibits risk characteristics similar to Japan's past crisis, with a significant increase in foreclosure properties and a corresponding decline in market confidence [6] - The "marginal pricing" effect of foreclosure properties is becoming a decisive factor in shaping market expectations, leading to a downward spiral in housing prices [6][7] Group 5: Policy Recommendations to Break the Cycle of Foreclosures - Short-term measures should include flexible handling of non-performing loans by banks, allowing for deferred payments for families in temporary financial distress to stabilize market expectations [8] - Long-term strategies should focus on improving residents' balance sheets through fiscal support and avoiding ineffective investments in infrastructure, directing resources towards affordable housing and urban renewal [9] - A differentiated approach to policy implementation is necessary, taking into account the varying risk profiles of different cities and property types [9] Group 6: Macro Control and Policy Coordination - China possesses strong macro-control capabilities and institutional advantages, which can prevent a prolonged economic downturn similar to Japan's experience [10] - The focus of policies should shift from merely ensuring project completion to directly addressing the financial health of households and businesses to mitigate the impact of foreclosures [10]