智通财经网·2025-10-09 07:02Group 1 - Core viewpoint: CITIC Securities has given Alibaba Group (09988) a "Buy" rating, forecasting revenue growth rates of 3.30% and 11.11% for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits of 121.73 billion yuan and 162.61 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -23.02% and 33.58% [1] - Valuation method: The company employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the value per ADS for the China e-commerce group and the Cloud Intelligence group at $145.67 and $71.04 respectively, leading to a target price of $216.72 per ADS, equivalent to HKD 210.76 per share [1] Group 2 - FY2Q2026 outlook for China e-commerce group: Revenue growth is expected to be around 11.55%, with CMR growth at approximately 10.04%, driven by cross-selling from flash sales and improved advertising efficiency due to AI [2] - Profit expectations: Adjusted EBITA is projected to decline by 72.58% to 12.21 billion yuan, primarily due to investments in flash sales, which are expected to incur losses of about 35 billion yuan; however, excluding flash sales, the e-commerce business's EBITA is expected to show positive year-on-year growth [2] - Cloud Intelligence group outlook: Revenue growth is anticipated to be around 30%, with an adjusted EBITA margin of approximately 9%, remaining stable year-on-year; capital expenditures are expected to remain high as Alibaba actively advances its 380 billion yuan AI infrastructure development [2] - Future capacity growth: By 2032, the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold compared to 2022, indicating an exponential rise in computing power investments [2]