下游需求尚未显著改善 沪镍持续上行动能有限

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals has seen significant fluctuations, particularly in nickel futures, which have experienced a notable increase amid mixed supply and demand dynamics in the industry [1] Macro Perspective - The Federal Reserve's minutes indicate that most officials believe continued easing may be appropriate this year, while a minority initially supported not lowering interest rates in September [1] Industry Analysis - According to Zhonghui Futures, the political situation in Indonesia has limited impact on nickel ore supply, with a notable divergence in the domestic nickel industry chain. There is significant oversupply pressure in refined nickel, while the supply of nickel sulfate remains relatively tight [1] - The latest domestic pure nickel social inventory is approximately 40,800 tons, showing a slight decrease month-on-month, but long-term supply pressures persist [1] Demand Dynamics - Southwest Futures notes that stainless steel is entering its traditional consumption peak, with increased production; however, demand remains constrained due to weak real estate consumption and sluggish nickel-iron transactions, leading to strong price-cutting psychology among steel mills [1] Market Outlook - Nanhua Futures suggests that during the National Day holiday, external nickel prices remained strong, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding Indonesian policies that have increased risk premiums. Expectations for tighter upstream nickel ore shipments and ongoing instability in long-term quotas continue to support the bottom price levels [1] - Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, with nickel sulfate prices under pressure. The demand for stainless steel is expected to enter an adjustment period after reaching seasonal peaks. It is anticipated that domestic prices will follow external trends with slight upward movements post-holiday, but sustained upward momentum is limited, likely resulting in a fluctuating strong pattern [1]