Trump’s Market Magic: Peace, Tariffs, and the Art of the Deal (or No Deal)

Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced a "first phase" peace deal between Israel and Hamas on October 8th, 2025, which included hostage releases and an Israeli troop withdrawal, typically expected to boost markets [2] - The immediate market reaction saw oil prices, specifically the December Brent crude contract, dip by 1.1% before recovering, closing 43¢/bl lower than the previous settlement [3] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 closed at a record high for the 33rd time in 2025 on October 8th, buoyed by a tech rebound, despite the peace announcement [3] - Following President Trump's announcement of sweeping new tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, the S&P 500 plummeted 4.8%, erasing over $2 trillion in value, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,679 points (4%) on April 3rd and an additional 2,231 points (5.5%) on April 4th [5] Tariff Impacts - President Trump's trade policies have led to significant market volatility, with a universal 10% duty on all imports escalating to 34% for China, 20% for the EU, and 24% for Japan [5] - A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced on April 9th, 2025, triggered a "historic rebound," allowing the S&P 500 to recover $4 trillion in value [6] Sector-Specific Movements - The S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada managed to rise by 150.27 points (0.50%) on October 8th, despite facing 35% U.S. tariffs on various exports [8] - Healthcare stocks in the S&P 500 saw an uptick following Trump's comments linking ACA subsidies to the government shutdown, showcasing the market's sensitivity to policy hints [11] Company-Specific Insights - The stock symbol DJT for Trump Media & Technology Group has shown a negative one-year return, with a market cap of $4.89 billion and a trailing P/E of 194.11, despite only $3.4 million in revenue over the past 12 months [9] - On April 9th, 2025, a post by Trump on Truth Social led to a 20% surge in DJT stock, highlighting the connection between Trump's social media activity and market movements [10] Global Trade Dynamics - The EU announced on October 8th that it would double its steel tariffs to 50%, mirroring U.S. levels, which positively impacted shares of ArcelorMittal [13] - India faced a significant increase in tariffs, with rates hiked to 50% in late August 2025, leading to a decline in the Nifty 50 and a weakened rupee [13]