高市版“安倍经济学”：刺激加码，日元走弱会否重演旧局？

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lead to significant fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy, resulting in a market phenomenon referred to as "Takaichi trading" [1][4]. Economic Policy Implications - Takaichi is seen as a proponent of "Abenomics," advocating for loose monetary policy, active fiscal spending, and structural reforms [5]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate has crossed the psychologically significant level of 150, which may prompt the Japanese government to intervene in the foreign exchange market due to rising import costs [5][6]. Market Reactions - Following Takaichi's victory, the Nikkei 225 index reached a historical high, and the USD/JPY exchange rate rose above 150 [1][4]. - The yen has depreciated since Takaichi's election, reducing its year-to-date appreciation to 2.77% [4]. Potential U.S. Relations Impact - Concerns arise that the yen's depreciation could reignite criticism from former President Trump regarding Japan's trade practices, as he has previously accused Japan of manipulating its currency [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that Takaichi may act cautiously in economic policy to maintain good relations with the U.S. [6]. Inflation Concerns - Input inflation due to a weaker yen could become a political issue for the ruling party, as it may increase the cost of living for Japanese households [6][7]. - The current inflation rate in Japan has exceeded the Bank of Japan's target of 2% for three consecutive years, with the latest figure reaching 2.7% in August [7]. Future Monetary Policy Expectations - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December and again in mid-2026, despite Takaichi's opposition to rate hikes [7]. - A stronger yen may be necessary to curb inflation and improve public purchasing power, which is a significant concern for the ruling party [7].