炼油行业“金九”行情落空，“银十”成色几何？ 分析机构：电商物流运输和农业用油将形成支撑

Core Insights - The traditional peak season for the refining industry in September did not materialize as expected, leading to a significant decline in profits due to dual pressures from costs and revenues [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Profit Decline - In September, the average refining profit for domestic refineries was 167 yuan/ton, a substantial decrease of 174 yuan/ton, representing a drop of 50.99% month-on-month and 10.65% year-on-year [1][2] - The average revenue from refined products was 5,337 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.69% [1][2] - The comprehensive refining cost increased to 5,170 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton, marking a rise of 1.61% [1][2] Supply and Demand Imbalance - The weak revenue was attributed to an exacerbated supply-demand imbalance, with many refined products experiencing oversupply and weak demand [3] - Key factors included weak demand for solvent oil and asphalt, uncertainty in international oil prices affecting market confidence, and adverse weather conditions in southern regions [3] Regional Insights - In Shandong, independent refineries saw a significant drop in profits, with the processing profit for imported crude oil falling to 132.83 yuan/ton, down 182.75 yuan/ton, a decline of 57.91% [3] - Despite an increase in operating rates among Shandong refineries, the release of production capacity did not translate into higher profits [3] October Outlook - Analysts expect a slight increase in refining profits in October due to anticipated relief on the cost side and seasonal demand support [6] - The international oil price is expected to face downward pressure, which could lower procurement costs for domestic refineries [6] - Diesel demand is projected to remain strong due to logistics and agricultural needs, while gasoline consumption may face seasonal declines after the holidays [6][7] - There are concerns about potential raw material shortages for Shandong refineries due to rapid usage of import quotas and maintenance schedules [7]