长城基金杨维维：半导体产业链三大细分领域值得重点关注

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector has shown strong performance, with the semiconductor equipment concept index rising over 112% in the past year, supported by robust fundamentals and positive earnings forecasts from companies in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor sector's strong performance is attributed to multiple factors, including improved global liquidity and a shift in U.S. monetary policy towards a more accommodative stance, which is expected to benefit capital-intensive industries [2]. - As of September 30, the semiconductor equipment concept index has significantly outperformed, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1]. Group 2: Earnings Forecasts - Recent earnings forecasts from semiconductor companies for the first three quarters of 2025 have shown impressive revenue growth, reinforcing the sector's potential [1]. - The semiconductor theme funds have also performed well, reflecting the positive market sentiment and earnings growth [1]. Group 3: Domestic Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is actively promoting domestic semiconductor production, with recent anti-dumping investigations into U.S. imported chips expected to create favorable conditions for local manufacturers [2]. - The domestic market's semiconductor equipment localization rates remain low, with various categories showing significant room for improvement, such as photolithography machines at less than 3% and testing equipment at under 5% [2][3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global semiconductor revenue is projected to nearly double from 2024 to 2030, potentially exceeding $1 trillion, indicating strong long-term growth prospects for the industry [4]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in three main areas: semiconductor materials, semiconductor equipment, and military semiconductor sectors, with a focus on domestic production and innovation [4][5].