The Global Energy Transition Rolls On—Even As The U.S. Hits Reverse

Group 1: U.S. Energy Policy Impact - The Trump administration's energy and climate policies have included withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and dismantling federal climate regulations, resulting in a delay of emission reductions by about five years compared to previous forecasts [2][14] - Despite the perception of a reversal in the global energy transition due to U.S. policy changes, the global shift toward renewable energy remains resilient [3] Group 2: Global Renewable Energy Developments - China is expected to install 390 GW of solar PV and 86 GW of wind in 2025, accounting for 56% and 60% of new global capacity respectively, driving the global energy transition [4] - The economics of clean energy are becoming decisive, with solar and onshore wind projected to supply 32% of global electricity by 2030, and fossil-fired generation expected to fall from 59% today to just 4% by 2060 [7] Group 3: Electrification and Electric Vehicles - Global electricity generation is projected to increase by 120% from now until 2060, with electrification growing and greening, leading to a doubling of electricity's share of total energy demand from 21% to 43% [8] - The number of electric vehicles is expected to grow from 50 million to 200 million in five years [9] Group 4: Challenges in Energy Transition - The biggest challenges in the energy transition are not the cost or availability of renewables, but rather the capacity of electricity grids to integrate and deliver them, with grid constraints limiting solar and wind capacity in Europe and North America [11] - Hydrogen production is growing slowly, with forecasts revised down for the third consecutive year, indicating challenges in decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors [12] Group 5: Long-term Emission Goals - The world is unlikely to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with the carbon budget for 1.5°C of warming expected to be exhausted by 2029, and net-zero CO₂ projected to be reached only after 2090 [13]