博时宏观观点：流动性和风险偏好支撑有色与成长

Market Overview - The profit cycle remains weak, but liquidity and risk appetite factors have improved, making the market relatively attractive in the medium term [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are favorable for gold, copper, and growth styles [1] - Global stock indices have risen, with gold surpassing $4000 per ounce, while oil prices remain weak [1] Economic Indicators - In September, the manufacturing PMI marginally increased to 49.8% from 49.4% in August, while the non-manufacturing business activity index slightly decreased to 50% from 50.3% [1] - The production side shows stronger improvement compared to the demand side, indicating a high market risk appetite [1] Market Strategy - In the bond market, interest rates are expected to fluctuate at high levels before the holiday, with intense long-short battles [1] - The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, but cautious liquidity measures indicate a focus on preventing capital turnover [1] - The bond market may remain in a volatile pattern due to upcoming events such as the Fourth Plenary Session and US-China negotiations [1] A-Share Market - Despite the National Day consumption not exceeding expectations, the market is still in a window period for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Anticipation of new domestic demand policies from the Fourth Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference suggests limited downside risk for indices [1] - The technology growth sector is expected to continue outperforming, driven by domestic and international AI industry catalysts [1] Hong Kong Stock Market - Following the Federal Reserve's preemptive interest rate cuts, the Hong Kong stock market typically shows strong resilience [2] Oil Market - Oil demand is expected to remain weak over the next 25 years, with continuous supply release putting downward pressure on oil prices [3] Gold Market - A positive long-term outlook for gold prices is anticipated, with short-term upward pressure from events such as the US government shutdown [4]