Oil little changed as investors weigh Gaza ceasefire, stalled Ukraine talks

Core Insights - Oil prices remained stable as investors assessed the implications of a ceasefire deal in Gaza against ongoing stalled peace talks in Ukraine, which may prolong sanctions on Russia and affect its oil exports [1][5]. Group 1: Ceasefire Deal in Gaza - Both Israel and Hamas have publicly endorsed a ceasefire deal, expected to be signed in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt [2]. - The ceasefire will involve a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of hostages by Hamas in exchange for prisoners held by Israel [3]. Group 2: Implications for Oil Markets - The ceasefire could have significant implications for oil markets, potentially reducing attacks in the Red Sea and increasing the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran, which may lead to higher crude and product exports from Iran [4]. - Previous attempts at ceasefire deals have failed, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza has supported oil prices due to concerns over global supply disruptions [5]. Group 3: OPEC+ Production and U.S. Oil Consumption - OPEC+ has agreed to a smaller-than-expected output increase, which has alleviated oversupply concerns in the market [6]. - U.S. petroleum products supplied rose to 21.99 million barrels per day, the highest level since December 2022, indicating a potential increase in U.S. oil consumption [7].