近年来最慢增速，全球海上贸易格局正在重塑

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report warns that global maritime trade is entering a period of fragile growth, rising costs, and uncertainty, predicting the slowest growth rate in recent years for 2025 [1] - Global maritime trade volume is expected to reach 12.783 billion tons in 2024, with a growth rate of only 0.5% for this year, following a robust 2.2% growth in 2024 [1] - Geopolitical tensions, new tariffs, and changing trade patterns are reshaping maritime trade dynamics, with high transportation costs significantly impacting developing countries [1] Maritime Trade Restructuring - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions have led to changes in long-distance shipping routes, resulting in a 5.9% increase in ton-miles, reaching a historical high [2] - The Red Sea crisis has had a long-term impact on global maritime markets, particularly affecting routes between Asia and Europe, Asia and the Middle East, and Asia and the East Coast of North America [2] - The number of vessels passing through the Suez Canal has dropped by 60% since the onset of the Red Sea crisis, while traffic around the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly [2] Impact of Tariff Policies - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has complicated global maritime trade, with the WTO downgrading global goods trade growth expectations due to the effects of tariffs [3] - The report indicates that global maritime trade volume could decline by 6-10 percentage points due to tariff increases, with a significant impact expected in the second half of the year [11] Transportation Costs and Emissions - The restructuring of maritime trade has led to increased transportation costs, port delays, and rising greenhouse gas emissions [13] - The report notes that global maritime emissions are projected to reach approximately 956 million tons in 2024, a 5% increase from the previous year [18] - The shipping industry is urged to enhance resilience against climate risks and improve infrastructure to adapt to extreme weather events [18]