Will Wells Fargo Stock Rise On Its Q3 Earnings?

Core Insights - Wells Fargo is set to announce its earnings on October 14, 2025, marking the first complete quarterly report since the Federal Reserve lifted the bank's $1.95 trillion asset cap in May 2025, which is expected to have minimal impact on Q3 results as the bank needs time to expand its operations [2] - The anticipated earnings for Q3 2025 are $1.53 per share, up from $1.42 per share in the same quarter last year, with projected revenues of approximately $21.1 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-over-year [2] - The bank is expected to see improvements in investment banking and deal-making revenues for Q3 2025, driven by declining inflation that has restored confidence and deal flows in the U.S. market [2] Financial Metrics - Wells Fargo currently has a market capitalization of $261 billion, with revenue over the past twelve months reported at $81 billion and net income at $21 billion [3] - Historical trends indicate that positive one-day post-earnings returns have occurred approximately 45% of the time over the past five years, with a median positive return of 4.0% and a median negative return of -3.3% [5] Trading Strategies - Two approaches are suggested for event-driven trading: understanding historical probabilities to set positions before earnings announcements or assessing correlations between immediate and medium-term returns to adjust positions post-announcement [4] - A lower-risk strategy involves examining the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, allowing traders to execute trades based on the strongest correlations observed [6]