ETF日报：贵金属和有色金属等板块多因素利好共振，可关注黄金股票ETF、矿业ETF、有色60ETF

Market Overview - The first trading day after the holiday saw a strong opening, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above the 3900-point mark, reaching its highest level since August 2015 [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.65 trillion, an increase of 471.8 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.73% [1] ETF Performance - Gold stock ETFs led the market with a rise of 9.47% [2] - Mining ETFs and Nonferrous 60 ETFs also performed well, closing up 8.58% and 8.44% respectively [2] Gold Market Insights - The weakening of the US dollar credit continues to support gold prices in the long term [2] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% [2] - There is a division among Fed officials regarding the extent of future rate cuts, with a majority expecting at least two more cuts this year [2] Global Political Developments - The US government has been in a shutdown for a week due to budget disagreements, with multiple funding bills failing to pass [3] - In France, Prime Minister Leclerc resigned after just 27 days in office, marking a significant political crisis for President Macron [3] - In Japan, a new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has been elected, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies [3] Commodity Supply Issues - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has faced significant operational disruptions due to a recent accident, leading to a projected reduction in global copper supply [6] - The International Energy Agency has projected a copper supply gap of 20% by 2035, indicating potential price increases in the future [8] Semiconductor Sector Developments - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with major ETFs like the Sci-Tech Chip ETF and Chip ETF rising by 2.98% and 2.96% respectively [9] - A report from the US House of Representatives calls for an expansion of export bans on semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China [10] AI and Computing Infrastructure - OpenAI has made significant agreements for computing power, including a $300 billion deal with Oracle and a partnership with AMD for chip supply [17][18] - The demand for storage is expected to rise due to the proliferation of video generation models, potentially leading to price increases in DRAM [20] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on gold stock ETFs, mining ETFs, and Nonferrous 60 ETFs due to favorable market conditions [6] - The semiconductor sector remains a strong investment focus, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues [21]