金价突破4000美元/盎司大关 黄金已成全球最“赚钱”大类资产？

Core Insights - International gold prices have surged significantly during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4000 per ounce, driven by a weak dollar and geopolitical tensions [1] - Goldman Sachs attributes the recent rise in gold prices to increased purchases by three main "strong buyers": rapidly growing Western ETFs, potential acceleration of purchases by central banks, and an increase in speculative positions [1][7] - The long-term performance of gold has outpaced other major assets, with a cumulative increase of 866.87% since 1990, significantly outperforming WTI crude oil and LME copper [2][4] Market Trends - Gold prices have increased by nearly 53% this year, almost double the total increase of 27.26% seen in the previous year, with significant gains observed since the beginning of the year [3] - The price of gold has reached levels not seen since the 1970s, with the last time such a significant annual increase occurred being in 1979 during a global energy crisis [3][4] - The World Gold Council reported that global central bank gold purchases exceeded 1000 tons from 2022 to 2024, indicating a strong trend towards gold accumulation [12][13] Investment Dynamics - The rise in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including the potential for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical instability, and a shift in capital towards safe-haven assets [7][8] - Investment institutions are increasingly allocating 10% to 20% of their portfolios to gold, reflecting a shift in strategy due to rising geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [6][11] - Historical data shows that gold has consistently outperformed other commodities, particularly during periods of economic turmoil, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset [5][9] Future Outlook - The probability of gold continuing to outperform the S&P 500 index remains high, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [14] - The World Gold Council's report indicates a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand, with a significant 45% rise in value, highlighting strong investor interest in gold amid market volatility [14] - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term corrections, the long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, supported by fundamental factors such as currency depreciation and economic instability [14]