“金九”百城房价分化：新房结构性微涨，二手房环比下跌

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed mixed signals, with new home prices experiencing slight increases while second-hand home prices continued to decline [1][2][5]. New Home Market - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,926 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [1][2]. - The new home prices in the third quarter saw a cumulative increase of 0.47%, although this was a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2]. - First-tier cities, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, exhibited strong performance with new home prices rising by 0.48% month-on-month and 6.87% year-on-year [2][3]. - The market remains uneven, with second and third-tier cities struggling to reduce inventory, as evidenced by a 0.35% month-on-month decline in new home prices in September [3]. Second-Hand Home Market - The average price of second-hand homes in September was 13,381 yuan per square meter, marking a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [5][6]. - The second-hand home market has faced continuous pressure, with prices declining for 41 consecutive months, and a cumulative drop of 5.79% in the first three quarters of the year [5][6]. - Second-tier cities experienced the largest declines in second-hand home prices, with a month-on-month drop of 0.87% in September [6]. Market Dynamics and Policy Responses - The increase in new home prices is attributed to the active launch of quality projects by developers in core cities, which has helped stabilize the market [3][4]. - Various cities have begun implementing targeted policies to alleviate pressure on the second-hand home market, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing tax policies [7]. - Despite these efforts, the second-hand home market is expected to continue facing downward pressure due to high inventory levels and weak market expectations [7].