Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-09 13:01Core Insights - The domestic AI chip industry is experiencing a performance explosion, but most companies still face profitability challenges, making the conversion of large orders into actual profits a key focus for the capital market [1][5] Company Performance - Chipone Technology (688521.SH) reported a significant increase in revenue, expecting to achieve 1.284 billion yuan in the third quarter, marking a 119.74% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 78.77% increase year-on-year [1] - The company signed new orders worth 3.249 billion yuan in the first three quarters, exceeding the total for the entire year of 2024, with 65% of these orders related to AI computing power [1][2] - Despite the revenue surge, Chipone reported a net loss of 320 million yuan in the first half of the year, which is a 12.3% increase in losses compared to the same period last year [1][3] Business Segmentation - The company's one-stop chip customization business is the core growth driver, with expected revenues of 429 million yuan from chip design and 609 million yuan from chip mass production in the third quarter, representing increases of 291.76% and 133.02% respectively [2] - The one-stop chip customization business is projected to account for over 80% of total revenue in the third quarter, while the traditional semiconductor IP licensing business's revenue is expected to remain flat year-on-year [2][4] Order Conversion Efficiency - As of the end of the third quarter, Chipone's backlog was estimated at 3.286 billion yuan, with 90% coming from the one-stop chip customization business, and 80% expected to convert to revenue within a year [3] - The company has maintained a high backlog for eight consecutive quarters, indicating strong demand for AI chips [3] Profitability Challenges - The company's high R&D expenses are a core issue affecting profitability, with R&D costs reaching 1.247 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 53.7% of revenue [3] - The gross margin for the one-stop chip customization business is significantly lower at 18.17%, compared to 92.73% for traditional IP licensing, further exacerbating profitability pressures [4] Industry Context - The domestic AI chip industry is facing similar profitability challenges, with companies like Moore Threads and Muxi also reporting significant revenue growth but continuing to incur losses [5] - The competitive landscape indicates that the first companies to achieve large-scale production will have a profitability advantage, as the market remains fragmented without a clear leader [6]