欧洲央行9月利率决议会议纪要：利率维持不变 资产负债表有序缩减 通胀与增长前景趋于平衡

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains key interest rates and outlines a clear path for reducing asset purchase programs, indicating a commitment to data-driven and flexible monetary policy to support economic stability in the Eurozone [1][2][7]. Interest Rate Policy - The ECB keeps the three key interest rates unchanged: deposit facility rate at 2.00%, main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending facility rate at 2.40%, as current inflation levels align with medium-term targets [2]. - August inflation in the Eurozone slightly increased to 2.1%, with core inflation stable at 2.3%, indicating a controlled price environment [2]. Asset Purchase Program - The ECB will no longer reinvest the principal of maturing securities from the Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), marking a transition from quantitative easing to normalized liquidity management [3]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans fell to 3.5%, supporting the market conditions for the balance sheet reduction [3]. Economic Growth - The ECB raised its 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 1.2%, reflecting a view of short-term pressures but long-term resilience in the Eurozone economy [4]. - The labor market remains strong, with a stable unemployment rate of 6.2%, which is expected to support consumer spending [4]. Risk Assessment - The ECB assesses that growth risks are balanced, with both upward and downward factors at play, while inflation uncertainty remains high [5]. - Downside risks include potential impacts from trade relations and geopolitical tensions, while upside risks involve unexpected increases in defense and infrastructure spending [5]. Policy Coordination - The ECB emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and structural reforms to enhance long-term economic resilience, focusing on growth-friendly investments [6]. - The completion of the savings-investment union and banking union is highlighted as essential for financial stability [6]. Data Dependency - The ECB reiterates its commitment to a data-dependent approach for future monetary policy decisions, ensuring flexibility in response to economic changes [7]. - ECB President Lagarde stated that the committee is prepared to adjust all policy tools as necessary to maintain inflation stability around the 2% target [7].