节后股债开门红 债市“钝刀割肉”配置难度还在增加

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with increased difficulty in investment compared to last year, influenced by various factors including policy changes and market dynamics [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the first trading day after the National Day holiday, both the stock and bond markets saw gains, with government bond futures rising across the board [2][3]. - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 0.6 basis points to 1.777% [2][3]. - The bond market has shown a wide fluctuation in yields this year, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating nearly 15 basis points since its issuance [3][8]. Group 2: Investment Challenges - The investment returns from banks have significantly weakened year-on-year, impacting their profitability [1][7]. - The introduction of new public fund sales regulations and the resumption of value-added tax on bond interest income are causing institutions to adjust their strategies [7][9]. - The bond market's "dull knife cutting meat" trend has led to increased pressure on investors, with many institutions facing challenges in navigating the current market environment [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express cautious optimism for the bond market, noting that while trading enthusiasm may slightly recover, overall trading space remains limited [1][6]. - The market is closely monitoring the impact of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the implementation of new public fund sales regulations [1][6]. - There is a consensus that even if the fundamental data remains poor in the fourth quarter, the continued loose monetary policy may not significantly lower bond yields [5][6].