美联储“三把手”：美国劳动力市场或进一步放缓 支持年内继续降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman and New York Fed President Williams supports further interest rate cuts this year due to a potential slowdown in the U.S. labor market, but he emphasizes that current employment cooling does not indicate an imminent recession [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Williams believes there will be further interest rate cuts this year, contingent on future data, particularly if inflation rises slightly to around 3% and unemployment increases moderately [1] - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance is described as "slightly restrictive," aimed at bringing inflation back to the 2% target while avoiding excessive shocks to the labor market [1] - The Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut during the September 16-17 meeting, with the majority of officials supporting this move due to rising employment risks, despite concerns over persistent high inflation [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Factors - Williams estimates that the impact of President Trump's tariffs on overall price levels is lower than market expectations, contributing only 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points to inflation [2] - Core inflation is gradually returning to around 2%, with no signs of secondary effects from tariffs, and structural changes in the economy are reducing upward inflationary pressures [2] - Rising employment risks are partially offsetting price increase momentum, indicating a complex interplay between labor market conditions and inflation [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Williams emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence in the face of political pressure for deeper rate cuts and attempts to replace Fed officials [2]