市场预期美联储10月份降息概率超九成

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes from September indicate a majority support for a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, with only one dissenting vote advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points due to softening labor market conditions and core inflation nearing the 2% target [1] - The Fed officials expressed that there is no preset path for future monetary policy, which will be adjusted based on data, economic outlook, and evolving risks, with most officials believing further easing may be appropriate for the remainder of the year [1] - Market expectations suggest a high probability of a rate cut in October, with a 92.5% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, as signs of a weakening labor market and easing inflation pressures emerge [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government has entered a "shutdown" state, affecting the release of key macroeconomic data, which may impact the Fed's policy decisions and increase market uncertainty [2] - The ADP employment report for September showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, while the number of layoffs decreased from 86,000 in August to 54,100 in September, indicating a stable but declining job market [2] - Nearly all respondents in a Desk survey expected a 25 basis point cut in the September meeting, with almost half anticipating another cut in October and a majority expecting at least two cuts by the end of 2025 [3]