Markets look unstoppable, but JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon sees a 30% chance of a correction: ‘I’m far more worried than others’

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, believes that investors are underestimating the risk of a significant market correction that could lead to a 30% decline in stock prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Valuation and Risks - Stock market valuations and concentration are at record highs, with warnings from tech leaders and institutions about potential market froth and the risk of an AI bubble burst [2]. - Dimon suggests that the market is not accurately pricing in the risk of a downturn, estimating a 30% probability of a correction compared to the market's implied 10% [3]. - High valuations are attributed to cheap money from national debt and stimulus measures during the COVID pandemic, creating an element of risk [5]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Dimon acknowledges the difficulty in predicting the timing of a market downturn, suggesting it could occur in six months or extend for another two years [3][4]. - Historical analysis of market euphoria, such as the dot-com crash, indicates that high valuations are a key indicator of an impending bubble burst [4]. - The S&P 500 has reached 33 record highs in 2025, with the top 10 companies comprising 40% of the index's market capitalization, reflecting significant stock concentration [6]. Group 3: AI Investment Outlook - While Dimon recognizes the potential of AI, he warns that much of the investment in the sector may be wasted, leading to losses for some investors [5]. - He compares the current AI optimism to past technological advancements, noting that while AI will ultimately pay off, many involved may not see significant returns [6].