Delta Ups Profit Outlook After Corporate Travel Roars Back

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings, leading to a rise in stock price and an increase in full-year profit outlook, indicating continued momentum into the fourth quarter [1]. Financial Performance - Delta's adjusted EPS for the third quarter was $1.71, surpassing the FactSet consensus of $1.53 and Goldman Sachs' estimate of $1.45 [2]. - The earnings result was near the high end of Delta's initial guidance range of $1.25 to $1.75, confirmed in September [3]. - Unit revenue (RASM) increased by 0.3%, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 0.8% decline [3]. Future Outlook - For the fourth quarter, Delta expects EPS between $1.60 and $1.90, with the midpoint exceeding both the consensus estimate of $1.65 and Goldman Sachs' forecast of $1.49 [4]. - The airline anticipates top-line growth of 2% to 4% year-over-year, surpassing Goldman Sachs' projection of 1.1% [4]. - Delta raised its EPS guidance for fiscal 2025 to approximately $6.00, above the previous range of $5.25 to $6.25 and ahead of the consensus estimate of $5.80 [5]. Capacity and Revenue Growth - The latest schedule data indicates a 2% increase in fourth-quarter capacity, expected to drive RASM growth of up to 2%, a significant improvement from the 0.3% growth in the third quarter [5]. - Corporate revenue growth accelerated, with corporate sales rising 8% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to low-single-digit growth earlier in the year [6]. Analyst Insights - Goldman Sachs analyst Catherine O'Brien maintained a 12-month price forecast of $68.00 for Delta, implying a 19% upside from the current price of $57.12 [7].