Gold powering higher as de-dollarization, debasement trade continues, says Carlyle's Jeff Currie

Group 1: Gold and Dollarization - Central banks now hold 27% of their reserves in gold, surpassing US Treasury holdings, indicating a strong trend of dollarization that has been ongoing for over five years [2][4] - The debasement trade has gained momentum, particularly during the government shutdown, with ETFs seeing inflows of 110 tons recently [2][3] - Investors are diversifying their portfolios away from tight credit spreads in fixed income and stretched equity markets, leading to increased interest in metals including gold, copper, silver, and platinum [3][5] Group 2: Copper and Industrial Metals - Copper has seen a nearly 25% increase year-to-date, driven by long-term underinvestment and unexpected demand surges from AI data centers and defense-related needs [7][8] - Major copper mines are facing supply issues, resulting in a loss of approximately 500,000 tons, contributing to a market deficit and potential for further price increases [8][9] - The term "copper is the new oil" reflects its strategic importance in global electrification efforts, highlighting the critical role of copper in future energy transitions [8] Group 3: Crude Oil Market Dynamics - Crude oil has been under pressure due to an anticipated supply glut, yet this has not affected physical market prices, which remain stable [10][11] - The current backwardation in crude oil prices and high refining margins suggest that the market is not responding to the expected supply wave, as consumers are likely to utilize the oil rather than store it [11][12] - Despite concerns about a large influx of supply, crude oil prices remain around $65 to $66 per barrel, indicating resilience in the market [12][13]